Speech by Lim Guan Eng at the Hong Kong Foreign Correspondents Club in Hong Kong on “Malaysia Tipping Point”
In Malcolm Gladwell’s seminal work in 2000, he describes the moment where change becomes a reality as a tipping point which he defined as "the moment of critical mass, the threshold, the boiling point." Gladwell describes the three agents of change:-
The Law of the Few or the Pareto Principle of 80/20 where 80% of the work is done by 20% of the participants resulting in the success of change being dependant on the involvement of people with a particular and rare set of social gifts;
The stickiness factor to ensure effective retention of content and impact; and
The power of context where human behavior is sensitive to and strongly influenced by its environment.
I submit that all 3 agents of change are present in Malaysia which puts Malaysia at the tipping point for a possible new government at the next general elections. Four important factors constitute the tipping point for progressive change whilst one factor may cause Malaysia to tip back in favour of BN to regressive change.
The first factor is that Malaysia are repugnant of entrenched and widespread corruption and believes that only a change of government can put an end to corruption. Malaysians are convinced that whatever the mistakes made by the PR state governments, PR government have generally performed better because we are clean and there is implicit trust in the integrity of leadership as exemplified by open competitive tenders, freedom of information as well as full disclosure of government contracts with the private sector and public declaration of assets by leaders that are certified by international accounting firms.
Two, Malaysians are hungry for change from an inept, oppressive and abusive regime to a competent, democratic government that protects basic human freedoms. In the past, change was not possible as there was no multi-racial alternative to BN. Now we have a credible alternative comprising Malaysians from all hues and background honed by nearly 5 years of experience in government that is competent and honest led by a nationally accepted leader in Anwar Ibrahim.
Three, the political weapons of fear, threats and lies would no longer be as effective as in the past. Fear of racial unrest such as the 1969 May 13 racial riots has receded as a change of government can only happen when Malays want change as the Malays form a majority of the voters. If BN loses, the reality is that it is not Malays against non-Malays but Malays who want change against those who do not. The Bersih rallies have shown that Malaysians of all races can work together for justice and clean elections.
Malaysians can make informed decisions by no longer relying on media outlets monopolised by the government through access to the internet. This is a technological revolution whose political, economic and social revolution impact is global. The yearning for change is only amplified by the change happening instantenously in many parts of the world.
Four, East Malaysia and the rural vote bank which is seen as a safe deposit for BN is no longer safe. The defections of 4 BN representatives from Sabah to pro-PR and the loss of the Sibu parliamentary seat in a by-election in Sarawak coupled with huge crowds at PR rallies shows that the political tsunami that swept Peninsular Malaysia may finally be coming to East Malaysia.
There is also disquiet in the rural vote bank exacerbated by the fall in commodity prices. As Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib continues to dilly-dally over calling for elections, such delays only work against him as there is no prospect of a strong recovery over the next few months.
Oil palm prices have dropped by 32% this year alone to RM2813 per ton far from the high of RM3,930 in 2008.
CPO Prices on 3, Jan 2012 – RM3215 per ton
CPO Prices on 8, Oct 2012 – RM2183 per ton
Fall in Price = RM1032 per ton or 32%
As for rubber, it has dropped by 41 cents or 6% this year to 630 cents, a far cry from 1,045 cents in April 2011.
Average Jan 2012 – 671 sen / kg
Average Oct 2012 –630 sen / kg
Fall in Price = 41 sen / kg or 6%
Even the listing of the much ballyhooed Felda Golden Ventures Holding(FGV) has lost its lustre. The initial excitement of FGV’s listing has obviously died down. FGV shares went down to RM4.57 in Sept 11, very close to its listing price of RM4.55. It has since gone back up to RM4.75 as of today (9th October 2012).
According to a Star report, FGV’s profits fell 87% to RM 192.2 million in Q1 2012. This will definitely have an impact on Felda settlers who are presumed to be hard-core BN and UMNO supporters.
However having mentioned the 4 positive tipping points in favour of change, there is another tipping point in favour of BN that may just tip the balance back in their favour. The fifth negative tipping point, if I can describe it, is electoral fraud.
The Election Commission(EC) has shown itself to be far from impartial, free, fair or even clean. Instead then EC has an abysmal record of being a ready tool of the ruling party where its top members are even members of UMNO. If BN succeeds in planting in phantom voters, BN can yet cheat its way to victory.
In conclusion, the final electoral results will ultimately depend on Najib. Whether Najib wants to be a real reformer or transformer of change or merely be a performer where he is long on rhetoric but short on action. All his so called reforms are cosmetic until Malaysians feel short-changed.
Malaysians seeks a new dawn where there is a burst of freedom, justice, truth, democracy and integrity in leadership. If Najib still allows charges of accumulation of extraordinary wealth by the Sarawak Chief Minister Tan Sri Taib Mahmud or the record-breaking wedding of the Melaka Chief Minister with 130,000 guests for his son’s wedding to go uncontested, then Malaysia have indeed reached the tipping point.
