On 20 January 2015, Kedah UMNO deputy chief Ahmad Bashah Md Hanipah convened a press conference with 14 divisional heads and leaders of both the party’s youth and women wings as well as other key UMNO leaders in the state to express their no confidence against Kedah Menteri Besar (MB) Mukhriz Mahathir. They called the party’s national leadership to remove Mukhriz from his MB post.
It is fairly clear that an MB cannot be removed by a press conference. Therefore many people are wondering what is the fate and options awaiting Mukhriz.
No, an MB cannot be sacked via a press conference
Under normal circumstances, the appointment of Menteri Besar, just like the Prime Minister in our Westminster parliamentary system, is by a confidence vote in the state assembly. This is really the technical term for saying, “he receives majority support among the state assemblymen”. As such divisional leaders who are not assemblymen no matter how powerful they are, cannot technically bring down an MB. Nor a press conference, even if it is held in the state assembly premise itself. Only in an actual sitting of the state assembly can a motion for a “no-confidence vote” be tabled.
But he can resign
Of course, alternatively, Mukhriz can choose to resign just as what Khalid Ibrahim did in 2014 thus ending the impasse in the Selangor after the so-called “Kajang move”.
Nevertheless, Khalid’s actions before his resignation may as well become option to Mukhriz. Although he was fired from PKR, Khalid still run the state as an independent MB, even to the extend of sacking those EXCOs who challenged his leadership while retaining the minimum four EXCOs required by the state constitution. Khalid finally resigned short of an emergency state assembly sitting after governing as an independent MB for more than two weeks.
Or he can strike a deal with the palace
In 2008, after the Political Tsunami 12th General Election, the Terengganu palace chose Ahmad Said over incumbent Menteri Besar Idris Jusoh even though UMNO central leadership supported the latter. All UMNO state assemblymen even stood behind Idris and some even threatened to resign if he was not made MB (Source: http://ww1.utusan.com.my/utusan/info.asp?y=2008&dt=0323&pub=Utusan_Malaysia&sec=Muka_Hadapan&pg=mh_01.htm).
Ahmad was subsequently sacked by UMNO for going against party instruction not to be sworn-in. However, UMNO central committee finally relented after a meeting between the then Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and the Yang Dipertuan Agong who is the Sultan of Terengganu. Ahmad was subsequently recognised as the MB of Terengganu.
This demonstrated the power and influence of the palace on the matter of Menteri Besar appointment. As such, Mukhriz may seek the patronage of the Kedah palace to retain his post. Incidentally, the current Sultan of Kedah, like the Sultan of Terengganu in 2008, is the Yang Dipertuan Agong.
He can also convince just enough UMNO backbenchers to be on his side
While the storm rose in Terengganu in 2008, up north, another MB crisis took place at the same time. Isa Sabu was appointed as Menteri Besar of Perlis on the claim that he commanded the confidence of the state assembly with eight UMNO assemblymen out of the total of 12 against incumbent Shahidan Kassim who had been MB for 13 years by then. As such, Isa was sworn in by the Raja of Perlis although Shahidan claimed that he had the backing of UMNO central leadership. (Source: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/79821)
Party support may not necessarily guarantee MB post
The Perlis and Terengganu MB crises showed that party support may not necessary guarantee appointment to the MB post; thus, corollarily, the lack of party support may not mean failure to secure an appointment.
However, it must be noted that these took place after the 2008 Political Tsunami where UMNO, led by a weakened Prime Minister, was barely emerging from a historic defeat in the 12th General Election. UMNO was too weak to prolong the internal fight especially in face of a stronger opposition as well as widespread discontent. The opposition PAS in Terengganu for example was ready to support Ahmad Said if a no-confidence motion is tabled in the state assembly.
There is another more sinister method…
Of course, another possible scenario would be the 2009 Perak Constitutional Crisis where “extraneous methods” were accepted to affect changes in the government.
The constitutional crisis in Perak provided the precedent that a dissolution of the state assembly or a even an actual confidence vote can be avoided if the Head of State is sufficiently satisfied that a new leader commands enough majority in the state assembly. Hence, Kedah UMNO can request audience with the palace to seek the appointment of a new MB.
Finally, the emergence of a grand coalition?
However, this is a double-edge sword.
Today in Kedah, the composition of the state assembly is 58%:42% between Barisan Nasional and the opposition (Pakatan Harapan and PAS). That means, if Mukhriz is oust by UMNO, and thereby provoking dissatisfaction amongst his supporters, a defection of just four assemblymen will result in the change of government. Perhaps this may even be the first ever UMNO Team B-Pakatan Harapan coalition government; the emergence of what Lim Kit Siang called the “Save Malaysia Grand Coalition” since Mukhriz has for the past one year been a critic of Prime Minister Najib Razak’s scandal-tainted administration.