Can Anwar Ibrahim survive five years as the 10th Prime Minister of Malaysia?
This is a question which Malaysians must constantly ask themselves for the next five years, unless Anwar is toppled before five years.
After four-and-a-half months as Prime Minister of Malaysia and eight weeks of the Dewan Rakyat meeting following the Opening of the 15th Parliament, I am more confident that Anwar can complete his full term as the 10th Prime Minister of Malaysia because had passed four tests, namely:
- Motion of Confidence in Parliament on the Anwar government;
- The Motion of Thanks for the Royal Address on the Opening of the 15th Parliament;
- Passage of the 2023 Budget; and
- Maintain the hopes of Malaysians that Malaysia can avoid the trajectory of a theocracy and a failed, divided, kleptocratic state in the coming decades, and do more, endeavour a reset and return to the nation-building principles of a plural Malaysia agreed by the nation’s founding fathers (which included the first four UMNO Presidents) to become a first-rate world-class nation.
If I am asked to mark the chances for the survival of Anwar as the 10th Prime Minister now, I will give the following grades:
- 90% that Anwar can last as Prime Minister for one year;
- 80% that Anwar can last as Prime Minster for three years; and
- 70% that Anwar can last as Prime Minister for the full term of five years.
This would take into account the failure of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) leadership in Parliament either to perform their parliamentary responsibilities or failure to respond to the Yang di Pertuan Agong’s message at the Opening of the 15th Parliament that Malaysia needs political stability to succeed as nation and their role to undermine national unity by further polarising the nation through heightened and untruthful race and religious rhetorics.
An important element determining the durability of Anwar as the 10th Prime Minister of Malaysia is whether UMNO can play a leading role to reset Malaysia and return the country to the original nation-building principles of plural Malaysia as set out in the Constitution and the Rukun Negara.
The disastrous performance of UMNO in the 15th General Election is proof that it is a mistake to believe that the Malay voters are loyal supporters of BOSSKU despite the many 1MDB charges in court, for if this was true, then UMNO should have experienced a revival instead of unprecedented defeat in the national general election last November.
The general election in the six states of Penang, Selangor, Negri Sembilan, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu in July/August will have a major bearing on the durability of Anwar as the 10th Prime Minister and is the next major test as to whether Anwar can last five years as the 10th Prime Minister of Malaysia.