As the first half of 2017 draws to a close, Prime Minister Najib Razak is probably regretting the strategic overreach he had committed. At the moment, he and his wife Rosmah Mansor are reportedly holidaying with a large entourage in Bali and Perth, which is probably a half-yearly retreat to re-assess the political scene with his advisers.
This year began with Najib believing he was invincible and “unsinkable” (as The Diplomat magazine describes him), that the Opposition is in shamble, and that archrivals Dr. Mahathir Mohammad and Anwar Ibrahim would not be able to reconcile to form a formidable team against him. It looked like they would not pose an electoral threat to Barisan Nasional.
He also believed that the de facto “coalition” with Hadi Awang’s PAS is sufficient to deliver victories to UMNO and Barisan Nasional through planted three-corner fights.
Najib was confident that the economy would be in a better shape through general expansion of exports as well as deals with China.
Everything was perfect for him. The plan was to dissolve Parliament in September or October.
Plan to remove senior leaders
Najib was so confident that, according to some UMNO sources, he planned to drop some Menteris Besar, Chief Ministers and senior UMNO ministers, up to seven Menteris Besar and Chief Ministers at the next general election.
It has long been rumoured that Perak MB Zambry Abdul Kadir, assumed office since the Perak coup in 2009, will be moved to Federal. Negeri Sembilan MB Mohamad Hassan, in office since 2004, is a great survivor as he was rumoured to be shown the door even as early as the 2008. Pahang MB Adnan Yaakob, in office since 1999, told friends that he was not sure if he would be fielded again.
Kedah MB Ahmad Bashah Hanipah is not an inspired leader while Terengganu politics under MB Ahmad Razif Rahman is in a mess and Perlis MB Azlan Man is not Najib’s choice.
Those considerations are not new.
But the signs of Najib’s strategic overreach and hubris manifested in the attempt to change Sabah Chief Minister Musa Aman, Johor MB Khaled Nordin and Melaka CM Idris Haron.
Musa Aman and his brother Anifah Aman resisted Najib’s move by attempting to force a Sabah state election. The tussle came to a head in February when Anifah was rumoured to have resigned as Foreign Minister and The Star’s exclusive report of the possibility of the separate poll.
Khaled Nordin’s selection as MB in the 2013 general election was more of the Sultan’s choice rather than being Najib’s ally. In the initial period after Muhyiddin Yassin was sacked from the Cabinet at the height of Najib’s 1MDB Donation-gate in July 2015, Khaled was seen trying to distance himself from the Prime Minister. I was told that Khaled asked aides to look into the possibility of a separate state poll.
My friends in UMNO are of the view that recent MACC activities in Johor and Melaka are related to the attempt to move Khaled and Idris to federal and replace them with a new set of leaders who would be more loyal to Najib.
Najib also attempted to sideline Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, UMNO Secretary-General Tengku Adnan Mansor and veteran Annuar Musa.
The peak of Najib’s strategic overreach was the appointment of his cousin and Defense Minister Hishammuddin Hussein as Special Functions Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department in April. From Najib’s camp, the appointment was meant to clip Zahid’s wings and to prepare Hishammuddin for post-GE UMNO party election.
Najib’s great flaws
The fundamental flaw with the strategy is that Najib is the problem, not solution. Najib’s popularity among the voters is of historical low and unlikely to recover.
Time is not on Najib’s side. His momentum was stopped from May onwards. The mishandling of Bandar Malaysia deal, the FGV fiasco and the DOJ suit on 1MDB further weakened his position.
For Bandar Malaysia, Najib thought he could replace a Chinese investor China Railway Engineering Corporation (CREC) with another Chinese investor Wanda to fetch a much higher price without understanding the nuances of Chinese political economy. Wanda is a private enterprise which has to seek government approval for its foreign investment while Malaysia’s snub of state-owned CREC is a slap on the face of the Chinese government.
China’s government is now taking a wait-and-see approach towards Najib’s government as trust deficit creeps in, and Najib is seen weaker than previously thought so. Major deals are unlikely to take effect until after the next general election.
The FGV fiasco threatens not just elite cohesion but may seriously dent UMNO’s survival in the next general election. A 15% swing of Malay support across the board could result in UMNO-BN losing up to 40 seats in the Peninsula alone, thus losing power.
The Opposition is not strong yet, but grudgingly the forces aligned to Mahathir and Anwar are trying to find a way to coexist and reconcile. Once full realignment takes place, Pakatan Harapan has the possibility of being seen as the better governing coalition.
UMNO’s alliance with PAS is resisted by BN parties in Sabah and Sarawak, and even some UMNO and PAS grassroots are unhappy with the collaboration. Kelantan UMNO leaders still think they can defeat the PAS state government, hence there shall be no deal with PAS at the state level.
The third and current DOJ civil suit brings national attention back to Najib and Rosmah. The US$27 million pink diamond necklace easily puts “the wife of MO1” ahead of Imelda Marcos’s excesses.
The revelations by New York Times in March 2015 of 1MDB’s corrupt deals, Wall Street Journal in July 2015 of the US$681 million “donation” into Najib’s personal account, and DOJ’s first civil suit in July 2016 erode Najib’s authority each time.
Time is running out for Najib
Najib was previously saved by the support of UMNO warlords, particularly the division heads, and his grip over various institutions such as the Attorney-General’s Chamber.
But Najib’s strategic overreach in the first half of 2017 backfired and alienated UMNO bigwigs who propped him up in the previous occasions. “Unsinkable” may now be the sword of Damocles over his head.
Najib may just be one or two mess-ups away from an internal revolt.