State, Constituency and Local differences in voter support for PH, PN and BN in GE15 (using data from P102 Bangi)

I refer to Bridget Welsh’s preliminary analysis of voting patterns among the major ethnic communities in Peninsular Malaysia that was published on the 25th of November 2022. Her analysis on a divided electorate by ethnicity is largely correct with Perikatan Nasional (PN) winning a majority of Malay support and with Pakatan Harapan (PH) winning a significant percentage of Chinese and Indian support and with Barisan Nasional (BN) winning about one-third of the Malay support in Peninsular Malaysia. My analysis here is to provide greater understanding of voting patterns at the state and constituency levels in Peninsular Malaysia.

For example, the PH support of approximately 11% estimated by Dr Welsh among the Malay voters in Peninsular Malaysia is no doubt affected by the low % of votes obtained by PH in Malay dominant states like Terengganu (5.4%) and Kelantan (8.7%). PH’s Malay support would be higher than 11% in states where PH is the incumbent state government – Selangor (52.4%), Pulau Pinang (59.4%) and Negeri Sembilan (44.4%). (See Table 1 below)

Table 1: Vote share of PH, PN and BN by states in Peninsular Malaysia, GE15

Source: Election Commission, Malaysia via Thevesh Theva

A more accurate of ethnic voting patterns can be obtained through a more granular and detailed analysis of the election results at the “saluran” or polling stream level for each constituency. Such analysis will show much greater variation in ethnic voting patterns between and even WITHIN constituencies. This kind of granular analysis will also provide greater nuance and explanatory power to better understand voting behaviour in the Malaysian context.

I am starting with the parliamentary constituency of Bangi because of the ethnic diversity of my previous parliamentary constituency (51.5% Malay, 37.0% Chinese, 10.8% Indian and 0.7% Others) and because I have access to the GE15 and GE14 polling stream and electoral roll data.

P102 Bangi can be considered a relatively safe seat for Pakatan Harapan. PH won this seat with 65.1% of the popular vote in GE14 (with a majority of almost 69,000). In GE15, PH retained this seat with 57.5% of the popular vote (with a majority of almost 70,000). PAS increased their share of the popular vote by 7.7% from 21.5% in GE14 to 29.2% in GE15 while BN’s share of the popular vote dropped by 2.1% from 12.6% to 10.4%.

Using regression analysis of the saluran data, I was able to estimate the Malay, Chinese and Indian support for PH, PAS / PN and BN in GE14 and GE15. The Malay support for PH fell from 37% in GE14 to 28% in GE15, a 9% drop. This is less than the 14% drop in Malay support estimated by Dr Welsh for PH at the national level. At the same time, the Malay support for BN fell from 18% in GE14 to 15% in GE15. PAS / PN increased its share of Malay support from 44% in GE14 to 54% in GE15, a 10% increase. PAS / PN gained Malay support from both PH as well as BN. But because PAS / PN had negligible (i.e. almost zero) support from the Chinese and Indian voters, it could not pose a credible threat to win this seat from PH especially since PH won an overwhelming share of the support from the Chinese (97%) and Indian (90%) voters in this seat. (See Table 2 below)

Table 2: PH, PAS / PN, BN support in GE14 and GE15

Source: Election Commission, Own Analysis.

There are many reasons for the drop in PH’s vote share among Malay voters in P102 Bangi. The departure of BERSATU from PH and the strengthening of the Malay government narrative in PN is no doubt an important factor. The sudden increase in the number of younger Malay voters, more of whom would support a relatively clean PN over a compromised UMNO and a more multi-ethnic PH, would be another.

The challenge for PH is win close to 30% of the Malay support and 90% or more of the non-Malay support as a baseline. Then, PH will be able to win in seats that comprise up to 70% Malay voters, especially in a multi-cornered contest. PH must be competitive among the Malay voters to win seats which have more than 60% Malay voters. This is how PH managed to win seats like Kuala Selangor (69% Malay), Gombak (78% Malay), Sungai Buloh (69% Malay) and Shah Alam (75%).

Despite losing 9% support among the Malay voters from GE14 to GE15 in P102 Bangi, PH managed to stay competitive in many of the Malay majority polling districts, including among the younger voters. This can be seen by examining the results by polling stream in some of these polling districts.

For example, in the Saujana Impian polling district – a middle class 83% Malay majority area under the Kajang state seat – PH won more votes than PN (46% versus 39%). PN won Salurans 2 to 4 but PH won Salurans 5 to 9, although the winning margin narrowed in Salurans 8 and 9, the two youngest Salurans. (Chart 1 below)

Chart 1: PH, PN and BN support by Saluran in Saujana Impian (83% Malay) (DUN Kajang)

In the Sungai Kantan polling district (88% Malay voters), in a less affluent area under the Kajang state seat, PN outpolled PH by only by a small margin (40% to 35%) and PH won a greater share of votes than PN among the younger voters in Saluran 6 and 7. (See Chart 2 below)

Chart 2: PH, PN and BN support by Saluran in Sungai Kantan (88% Malay) (DUN Kajang)

PH fared less well in the Malay majority polling districts under the N26 Sungai Ramal state seat which is situated in the Bandar Baru Bangi area which was a state seat formerly held by PAS for 3 terms (1999, 2008 and 2013). But even in these polling districts, PH came in a respectable second and was the clear alternative to PAS among the younger voters, displacing BN.

For example, in the Sungai Ramal Dalam polling district (98% Malay), PN won 55% of the popular vote compared to 26% for PH and 17% for BN. But PH narrowed the gap with PN among voters in Saluran 4 to 6 and won more votes than BN in Saluran 3 to 7. Even in youngest saluran 7 which went to PAS with 61% of the popular vote, PH still managed to win 28% of the popular vote. (Chart 3 below)

Chart 3: PH, PN and BN support by Saluran in Sungai Ramal (98% Malay) (DUN Sungai Ramal)

In the 98% Malay middle class neighbourhood of Seksyen 3 Bandar Baru Bangi, PH managed to narrow the gap by winning 39% of the popular vote compared to the 48% won by PN. PH was competitive in the younger Salurans and even won Saluran 6 & 7 and only narrowly lost Saluran 8, the youngest saluran by 4% (43.5% compared to 47.5%). (See Chart 4 below)

Chart 4: PH, PN and BN support by Saluran in Seksyen 3 Bandar Baru Bangi (98% Malay) (DUN Sungai Ramal)

PH fared better in the Malay majority polling districts in the N27 Balakong state seat where PAS and PN’s grassroot presence is not as strong as in N26 Sungai Ramal. For example, in the Malay middle class neighbour of Bandar Tun Hussein Onn (80% Malay), PH won a greater share of the popular vote (49%) compared to PAS / PN (38%). PH had a clear lead over PN in Salurans 8 to 13 but PN fared better in the youngest Saluran 15 winning 48.8% of the popular vote compared to 40.6% won by PH. (Chart 5 below)

Chart 5: PH, PN and BN support by Saluran in Bandar Tun Hussein Onn (80% Malay)(DUN Balakong)

In the less affluent polling district of Desar Baiduri (68% Malay), PH won 42.9% of the popular vote, just slightly ahead of PN with 42.1% with BN in third place with 13.5%. PH won the earlier Salurans from 1 to 5 (which have more non-Malay voters) but lost out or was even with PN in the younger Salurans (from 7 to 13). (Chart 6 below)

Chart 6: PH, PN and BN support by Saluran in Desa Baiduri (68% Malay)(DUN Balakong)

A few observations can be made from the Saluran analysis of the Malay majority polling districts in P102 Bangi that is shown above:

1. PAS / PN does better in polling districts / areas where they have had electoral representation in the past and hence, better grassroots. (This partly explains why Dr Halimah Ali, formerly a PAS ADUN and Selangor EXCO member, and Dr Ahmad Yunus Hairi, currently the ADUN for Sijangkang and a former Selangor EXCO member, managed to win the parliamentary constituencies of Kapar and Kuala Langat in Selangor)
2. There is a noticeable increase in the support for PAS / PN in the youngest Saluran in Malay majority polling stations. At the same time, PH is the clear alternative to PN among the middle age and younger Malay voters in the urban areas by beating out BN.
3. It is possible for PH to be competitive and even win more votes than PAS / PN in Malay majority polling districts. Local machinery and local servicing are important, especially in the less affluent areas where the personal touch of a candidate and his / her team can make a difference.

Similar granular analysis needs to be carried out in different ethnically mixed seats, using polling streams and polling district data to allow for a better understanding of voting patterns including the influence of factors beyond race such as class, age, grassroot strength of the various parties and constituency servicing by the elected representatives. This can be supplemented with survey data at the constituency, state, and national levels, where available.

There is much variation in the support for the various coalitions at the state and local levels that needs to be properly analysed and understood among the members of the media, academia, politicians and the larger public.