Zahid’s simple arithmetic of BN winning the state of Penang is based on the following prediction: since there are 40 state seats in Penang, all BN needs is to win 21 state seats to form a government based on simple majority.
He thinks that Umno is confident of winning 15 seats, he expects Gerakan to win 5, MCA to win 3 and MIC to win 1. This would result in a total of 21, thus enabling BN to capture the Penang state government.
At the moment, Umno has only 10 seats, whereas Gerakan, MCA and MIC, have nothing at all. How is Umno going to increase another 5 seats, and how Gerakan, MCA and MIC are going to win a total of 9 seats remain unanswered.
The non-Malay component parties of BN were all literally wiped out in the last two general elections in Penang. Gerakan once the ruling party could not even win in one seat in Penang.
It is ironical that Penang’s Gerakan chief Teng Chang Yeow has been given the responsibility to lead BN to a victory in Penang.
While BN winning 21 seats is unimaginable based on the present scenario, an interesting question would be: say that unimaginable takes place where Umno wins 15 seats, Gerakan 5, MCA 3 and MIC 1, then which party will be in a position to appoint a chief minister?
Remember in the 2008 general election, the unresolved issue of who would be the chief minister and the possibility that Umno might nominate its own candidate cost not only the downfall of Gerakan, but BN as a whole.
Zahid in talking about the parliamentary seats said that the chances of BN winning more parliamentary seats in the state is a real possibility.
He thinks that the possibility of winning parliamentary seats in Nibong Tebal, Batu Kawan, Permatang Pauh and others is “bright”. However, he also remarked that winning in Bagan, Jelutong and other Chinese majority seats is pretty much “dim”.
In wresting back Penang from the PH, Zahid passed the responsibility baton to Penang’s BN chief Teng Chang Yeow of Gerakan. He told Teng that since he is the main player, the ball was at his feet to lead BN to a stupendous victory in Penang.
While words of encouragement from Zahid are fine for BN supporters, the political reality is not that simple. The real question is whether BN or for that matter Umno can make a come back in Penang. With Bersatu making inroads in preominantly Malay areas, it is doubtful whether Umno is as safe in its traditional areas.
Politics is not a one-way street. When it comes to political contests and winning, no one party can unilaterally determine its political trajectory. In this respect, Umno must be blinded or completely out of touch with reality to boast about its prospect of winning in Penang.
While the outcome of the coming general election cannot be taken for granted, I am sure that predictions must be made on the basis of data available. They cannot be based on wishful thinking or just to make some political points that might sound pleasing to others.
Zahid might be in a high political and administrative position in the country, but however such elevated position might not give him the knowledge or political insight into making predictions.
As it is his predictions about the electoral outcomes in Penang is more based on wishful thinking more than anything else.
A ruling coalition like BN that was nearly wiped out of the political landscape in Penang in the last two general elections has a long way to go to make its presence in Penang let alone making a swift come back to dominant position in Penang.