N56 Sungai Pelek in Selangor is a good example of the benefits of PH-BN cooperation during the recent state elections

The N56 Sungei Pelek state seat was also going to be the most difficult for the DAP to retain in the recent state elections in Selangor. This was an almost 60% Malay majority seat where DAP was fielding a local Chinese candidate against a relatively well-known PN candidate who was a former local UMNO leader. This was a seat which PH won 48% of the popular vote according to the saluran results for the P112 Sepang parliament seat for GE15. Using the same data from GE15, BN and PN won 31% and 18% of the popular vote respectively. The key question here was the % of BN-UMNO supporters who would transfer their votes to PH in this state seat.

PH managed to win this seat with an almost 1500 majority and with 51.8% of the popular vote (See Table 1 below). Even though the PH majority was decreased from slightly more than 6000 votes using GE15 data (in a three-corner fight), the fact that the DAP was able to retain this Malay majority seat in the context of a rising PN and a weakening BN should not be easily dismissed.

Table 1: Total and % of votes won by PH, BN, and PN in PRN2023 and GE15 in N56 Sungai Pelek

Ethnic Composition in PRN2023: 59% Malay, 23% Chinese, 17% Indian, 1% Others

It cannot be denied that there was a big swing in the Malay support in N56 Sungai Pelek from GE15 to PRN 2023. According to my estimates, the Malay support for PN increased from 51% in GE15 to 75% in PRN2023, an increase of 24%. Approximately 20% out of the 25% of Malay support given to BN-UMNO in GE15 swung to PN in PRN2023. The Malay votes which went to some of the smaller parties and independent candidates in GE15 of about 2% also went to PN in PRN2023. But about 5% out of the 25% Malay support for BN-UMNO in GE15 were transferred to the PH candidate in PRN2023. In addition, about 5% of the Chinese and 10% of the Indian support which went to the Chinese BN candidate in GE15 were also transferred to the PH candidate in PRN2023. All in all, a vote transfer of approximately 25% of total BN votes from GE15 went to PH in PRN 2023, with the remaining 75% going to PN. (See Table 2 below). Given that PN won a negligible amount of the non-Malay vote in this 40% non-Malay constituency in GE15 and in PRN2023 and given the 25% vote transfer from BN to PH (including 5% out of 25% or 20% BN’s Malay support in GE15), this was sufficient for PH to win this seat with almost 52% of the popular vote.

Table 2: Estimated Malay, Chinese, and Indian support for PH, BN, and PN in GE15 and PRN2023 in N56 Sungai Pelek

Source: PRN 2023 Saluran Results, Own estimates.

PH would not have been able to win N56 Sungai Pelek seat without support from UMNO especially in the Malay majority areas of Jenderam Hulu, Salak, and Hulu Cucuh. While there was some hesitancy on the part of some UMNO members to work with and campaign for PH in the first week of the campaign, a certain comfort level was reached by the 2nd week of campaign. The cooperation between PH and BN at the leadership and grassroots level was also enhanced by the presence of state and national leaders campaigning together in N56 Sungai Pelek. I experienced this when MITI Minister, Tengku Zafrul, came to Sungai Pelek to campaign with the PH candidate, Lwi Kian Seong, together with Ng Sze Han, the DAP Selangor state secretary and recently sworn in as Selangor EXCO. Zafrul was able to mobilize the local UMNO leadership and grassroot to throw their support behind the PH candidate.

Picture 1: Tengku Zafrul Campaigning with the PH Candidate, Lwi Kian Seong, in Kampung Lanjut near Salak Tinggi, Sepang on the 10th of August 2023

Picture 2: Townhall with Tengku Zafrul, Shafie Waris (Deputy UMNO Head of the Sepang Division), and Lwi Kian Seong, PH candidate for N56 Sungai Pelek

Picture 3: Ng Sze Han, Dr Ong Kian Ming and Tengku Zafrul outside the townhall venue

Picture 4: Dr. Ong Kian Ming and Tengku Zafrul campaigning in Kampung Lanjut, Sepang.

PH’s assistance on the campaign trail and the vote transfers from PH supporters to BN would also have helped BN win in other seats notably in N23 Dusun Tua, a seat which was originally won by the DAP in GE14 and was given to UMNO to contest in PRN2023. The UMNO candidate, Datuk Johan bin Abdul Aziz, won this seat with a 3000-vote majority. DAP leaders including Gobind Singh, Ng Sze Han, Lim Yi Wei (ADUN for Kampung Tunku) and Wong Kah Woh (MP for Taiping) campaigned for the UMNO candidate in Dusun Tua. (A more detailed analysis on Dusun Tua will follow after the saluran results are released by the Election Commission).